Threat analysis

Al-Qaida (a non actor) surfaced about a year prior to the Soviet Union pull out from Afghanistan. From the beginning, Al-Qaida had been formulated by its pioneer leadership so as to organize the all the Islamic Jihad factions. Indeed, al-Qaida accomplished this ambitious objective by spearheading a variety of other non-state actors and two decades later executed the September 11th terror attacks in U. S. At that point in time, Al-Qaida’s major achievement was to incite other non-state actors as well as the wider Muslim community against the U. S. 1
On the other hand, since 9/11 Al-Qaida is fading and with approximately 4, 000 operatives it is operationally weak, but ideologically stronger. This ideological rise prompts other non-state actors as well as local jihads. Moreover, the funding as well as training for such non-state actors is still wired through Al-Qaida. 1
While comparing the pre-9/11 propaganda propagated by other non-state actors, the current al-Qaida make of propaganda is awfully violent, openly urging Muslims to kill. 2 Additionally, Al-Qaida’s ideological potency is evident in its ever changing operational targets i. e. whereas in the 1980’s the U. S. was the prime target, now al-Qaida has redirected the terror acts towards U. S. allies e. g. U. K., Spain, Turkey e. t. c. 2
As a result of the counterterrorism measures by U. S. against al Qaeda since September11th terror attacks, as well as defensive operations abroad aimed at improving security, most of U. S. citizens now feel more secure now. Furthermore, now U. S. intelligence analysts appreciate that the adversary is not Islam; but a distortion of Islam is the foe. In fact, U. S. adversaries go beyond al-Qaida (a non-state actor) to accommodate the radical ideological factions, motivated to a certain extent by al Qaeda3; and the threat of Islamist extremism as well as terrorism will continue, but it will diminish significantly in future. 2
Bibliography
1. International Security Forum, Anja H. Ebnöther, Ernst M. Felberbauer, and Theodor H. Winkler. Proceedings of the Conference. Bern [u. a.]: Peter Lang, 2005.
2. Chaliand, Gérard, and Arnaud Blin. The History of Terrorism: From Antiquity to Al Qaeda. Berkeley: University of California Press, 2007.
3. National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States.
http://www. 9-11commission. gov/report/911Report_Exec. htm