Threat analysis essay

Threat AnalysisBrief introductionNotwithstanding the reports of the intelligence community that the Al Qaeda network has been subdued, the leadership of Osama bin Laden and his cohort remains a substantial threat to various countries. The 9/11 US tragedy was a wake up call for a continuing studies on terrorism and to deploy an efficient and effective homeland security management. Apparently the US Federal government implements threefold security measures and threat analysis to monitor the mobilization of Al Qaeda. DiscussionsCapability AssessmentThe Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has disclosed that there is no exact “ quantitative” basis on the numbers of Al Qaeda, but a capability assessment must always “ assume” a clear and present danger on the prevalence of terrorist groups and the “ unpredictability” of a possible attack at any given time (Katzman, 2005). One of the elevated critical assessments on the capability of Al Qaeda can be generally perceived by the international intelligence community on the indicative global terrorists’ group networks of the Al Qaeda. It may not be a remote possibility that if a capability assessment would assume “ weakness” of the Al Qaeda, then a potential occurrence similar to 9/11 tragedy could be more devastating. This is to consider the presence of Muslim communities that are potentially vulnerable for Al Qaeda recruitment on the basis of Islamic ideology.

MotivesAccording to the United States 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), the Al Qaeda is a relentless threat to the United States. The NIE implied that Al Qaeda is always focused on the United States to vindicate the Islamist motive to replace the governments of the Western countries with fundamentalist Islamic regimes (Bajoria, 2008). This motive has been corroborated by the Al Qaeda manifesto on ‘ The World Islamic Front for Jihad against the Jews and Crusaders’ which was retrieved by the US Federal enforcers sometime on February 1998. The manifesto clearly defined the call of duty of every Muslim to kill every Americans (civilian or military) and its allies (Pike, 2006).

OpportunityThe Al Qaeda terrorist network pursues the opportunity to organize amongst Muslim communities and ally with various extremist groups worldwide. Like for example is the Al Qaeda alliance in Asian countries, such as with the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka and the Abbu Sayyaf in the Philippines. Likewise, it was documented in 2001 that “ core groups” of Taliban were able to organize contacts with extremist groups in Yemen, Germany, Pakistan, and even the United States. What it takes as an opportunity for Al Qaeda to establishing alliances is the provision of funds, trainings and weaponry to enable organizing of Islamic terrorist groups (Pike, 2006). TargetingThe Al Qaeda and its terrorist groups strategically target major government installations, facilities and personnel.

The “ wavelength” of threat of using nuclear weapon is to create social anxiety and paranoia. Similarly, the Jihad (holy war) alternately targets the civilian populace through hijacking, bombing, suicide attacks, to name a few. Overall, these are façade of terrors to show that Islamism dominates the western world (Bajoria, 2008).

Findings and conclusionIt is found that the threat analysis of the intelligence community on Al Qaeda is a critical basis to monitor and familiarize the patterns of terroristic attacks, in which a preventive or preemptive measure can be formulated together with the deployment of feasible homeland security and defense. In conclusion, determining the qualitative or quantitative capabilities of Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups is a substantive and objective method in enabling effective and efficient counterterrorism strategies. ReferencesBajoria, J.

(2008). ‘ Al Qaeda’. Council on Foreign Relations.

Retrieved 05 June 2009from http://www. cfr. org/publication/9126/.

Katzman, K. (2005). ‘ Al Qaeda: Profile and Threat Assessment’. Library of Congress. Retrieved 05 June 2009 from www. fas.

org/sgp/crs/terror/RL33038. pdf. Pike, J. (2006).

‘ Al Qaida’. Global Security. Retrieved 05 June 2009 from http://www. globalsecurity. org/military/world/para/al-qaida. htm.