World history. the risk to the middle east and the us of a nuclear islamic iran

World History The purpose of this paper is to discuss the risk to the Middle East and the US of a nuclear Islamic Iran ready to attack Israel or threaten it on behalf of a Palestinian cause at a time of perceived US domestic political weakness. If this worst case scenario happens, what do you think will be the reaction of the US, NATO, Israel, UN, European Union, Region Arab states and Russia. Speculation based on past history since the 1948 Israeli independence and first Arab Israeli war. Without question, a nuclear armed Iran would have serious implications for the region. In an article by Sanger (2010) it was postulated that in the case of China a containment strategy was utilized (Not actively engaging in a nuclear war but deterring its dangerous moves). Ultimately, at the moment most Americans are more worried about a trillion-dollar debt rather than the nuclear arsenal that the East Asian nation posses. However the debate rages of the risks associated a containment strategy with Iran. Over the years Iran has seen a significant increase in its domestic energy demands, which places a significant strain on the amount of oil that can be used for export. Under this guise, the nation has suggested that it would like the capacity to generate electricity thought the use of nuclear power plants. Whilst this may seem like an innocent enough proposition it remains the case that this action could bring with it a nuclear armament. According to Fathi (2005) it is the case that the President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has stated at the annual anti-Israel demonstration that “ Israel must be wiped off the map.” From this perspective we can only take them him for his word and assume that there exists an intention to destroy the nation of Israel. Some of the background to this perspective is the hostilities between Israel and the State of Palestine, and if an attack from Iran to Israel were to occur it would be on the behalf of the Palestinian people. With these thoughts in mind special consideration must be made for international reactions to an attack on Israel from Iran. Fro an American perspective, there exists a perceived domestic political weakness towards issues in the Middle East. However, one must take into consideration that the United States and Israel have a long standing military cooperation which sees the flow of goods and technology from both the United States to Israel and visa versa. For example the United States controversially supplied Israel with military hardware during the Yom Kippur War which led to a serious retaliation from most of the Arab World by encouraging an oil embargo that led to the OPEC oil crisis of the early 70’s. Without question this will make the US support of Israel difficult during an all out war. But the size and magnitude of a nuclear war would probably lend a great deal of support to the Israeli people in such a conflict. From a NATO Perspective, Israel is a manor Non-NATO Ally of the United States and whilst this would not serve as a guaranteed member of collective defense it would give special consideration. From an Israeli perspective, the reaction should be quite clear. I expect that the nation would do everything that it can to protect itself from any hostile nation. Israel has at least on one occasion destroyed the nuclear reactor of the nation of Iraq during operation Babylon/Operation Opera. From the European perspective I would not expect a severe military response. The recent events of the Gaza flotilla raid it became clear that most nations in Europe universally condemned the action which at least in the near future would not suggest that the nations would give support to the nation in the near future. From the perspective of other nearing Arab-States it is unlikely that much support would be given to Israel. Although at least on paper some nations have some economic ties with Israel and it has been made abundantly clear through the Yom-Kippur War and the Six Day War that nearing Arab states would not be unhappy if the Nation of Israel were destroyed. Finally from the Russian perspective it is difficult to gauge what action would be taken. From one side of the coin, Russia has had a long standing trading partnership with Iran, yet the prospect of a nuclear Iran would probably not sit well with Russia. It could be that the nation would remain largely neutral during any incursion. References Fathi, N. (October 27th 2005) Wipe Israel ‘ Off the Map’ Iranian Says. New York Times. [online] Available at http://www. nytimes. com/2005/10/26/world/africa/26iht-iran. html Accessed on February 12th 2011. Sanger, D. (March 13th 2010) Debate Grows on Nuclear Containment of Iran. New York Times. [online] Available at http://www. nytimes. com/2010/03/14/weekinreview/14sanger. html Accessed on February 12th 2011.