Pakistan mobile operator forecast, 2009 – 2013 essay

Pakistan will have 130. 6 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Mobilink declining to 27. 8% Mobile Operator Forecast on Pakistan provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Pakistan’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry.

The publisher provides five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. They also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Pakistan include: Mobilink (Pakistan Mobile Communications Limited), Ufone GSM, China Mobile Ltd. (Paktel), Instaphone, Telenor ASA, and Warid Telecom International. Their Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates. Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population.

The publisher’s forecasts are based on their proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics. Contents: Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast Mobilink (Pakistan Mobile Communications Limited) Ufone GSM China Mobile Ltd. (Paktel) Telenor ASA Warid Telecom International Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 – June 2011 PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY) SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR — POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATORPOST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR – MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR – DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) – MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR — VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) — MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) — MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) — SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATORHHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) — CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) – SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) — EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR —EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR — EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR — CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR – CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR – (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR – EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR — REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) – VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) — SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) — CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) – – Not available for this country forecast — Available only for Mobilink — Available only for Mobilink and TelenorSummary: Executive Summary Subscriber growth is slowing down in Pakistan’s wireless market +7. 2% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.

2009 ARPUs are decreasing in Pakistan’s mobile operator space -14. 5% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q. 2009 Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing at Mobilink +6.

4% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q. 2009 Negative EBITDA growth at Mobilink and Telenor in the latest quarter Industry average EBITDA growth was -22. 6% in 2Q. 2009 So what is IEMR’s Forecast? Total wireless subscribers in Pakistan to reach 130. million in 2013 – The publisher forecasts that total mobile subscribers in Pakistan will increase from 94. 7million in 2008 to 130. 6 million in 2013. – Mobilink will continue to be the largest player in Pakistan’s mobile operator space over the next five years.

They expect that Mobilink will have 36. 3 million mobile subscribers in 2013. – Also, given the latest quarter numbers, their model predicts that Ufone GSM will have 27. 2 million, Telenor will have 27. 2 million, and Warid will have 25. 6 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2013.

Mobilink will see its subscriber market share decline from 2009 – 2013 – The publisher’s model predicts that Mobilink’s market share will decline steadily over the next five years, from 37. 6% in 2008 to 27. 8% in 2013. – We forecast that market shares at Ufone, Telenor, Warid, and China Mobile will be approximately 20. 8%, 20.

8%, 19. 6%, and 10. 9% respectively in 2013. ARPUs will remain low in Pakistan’s wireless market – ARPU levels remain low in Pakistan’s mobile operator space. The publisher expects that the industry average ARPU will decline from US$ 2. 66 in 1Q.

2008 to US$ 2. 48 in 1Q. 2009. The publisher thinks that, in 2013, Telenor’s monthly ARPU will be at highest among operators at US$ 2.

78. The operator with the lowest monthly ARPU will be China Mobile (Paktel) with US$ 1. 19 in 2013. Mobilink’s EBITDA margin will continue to be higher than Telenor’s – The publisher expects that Mobilink’s profitability will deteriorate over the next several years, but Mobilink’s EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will continue to be higher than Telenor’s. – Their model forecasts that Telenor’s EBITDA margin will be 20. 3% and Mobilink’s EBITDA margin will be 32.

7% in 2013.