Demography transition theory and its implications

The population growth and study on the various repercussions can be checked through the demographic transition theory. It provides an overview of the various stages that are prevailing in one or the other form in each country. Dr Eberstadt provided insight on the global demographic population trends.
In 1929, Warren Thompson specified that there are three different stages of population growth. They were categorized into each group.
Demographic Transition model
Table Source: www. bbc. co. uk
Group A: In pre-industrial society, the birth and death rates were high. The family planning methods did not exist that leads to an increase in the number of childbearing women and there were no proper health treatments and causes high death ratio.
Russia is one of the world’s largest countries. It has a population of around 143 million people. It has enormous natural resources and is under Presidential rule. The first stage can be a perfect example of the Russian population. Alcohol-related deaths are common and due to these high rates of alcoholism and economic hardship, the women are less inclined towards childbearing. The immigration level is also low. Due to the economic conditions and fewer health facilities there is major drop in the population rate.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has implemented certain policies in the form of incentives for the couples who have a second child. This can increase the birth rate. This has to be dealt in a serious manner.
Group B: Under this, a trend of falling death rates and an increase in population is noticed. This could have major impact as the young age group increase in number rapidly. It can be headed towards the major progress and can have great positive response with certain precautionary measures.
Group C: The birth or death rates are not under control. The health factor has major change as it can be diagnosed with various treatments that decrease the death rate. The family planning methods are widely used and it makes the process of fertility denial much easy.
The impact of Group B and C is seen in many major countries. There are various factors that have brought in this revolution and some of them can be listed as below.
1. The new idea of a small family in the urban industrial society.
2. Compulsory education for the children.
3. Effective techniques of fertility reduction are available.
4. Most of the women are working and are independent of other household obligations. It becomes important to manage the child and the work and keep balancing which may not be possible with many children.
5. Fertility decline can be based on socio-economic and demographic conditions.

It is majorly from the individual perspective. But it may not be able to cope up with the present conditions. There are countries like China which have brought in new rules as one child per family that makes the process of childbearing even more stringent. It is to control the increasing population. These factors lead to having control of the population level.
These can form the four surprises such as,
declining fertility rate as in Russia
Gender imbalance in China
Mortality rates dripping
Immigration from Mexico
It would become important for the existing people to adapt to changes in their lifestyles, business practices and other policies. The increase in the life span has increased population growth.
Life span: In the 1900’s the life span was around 35 years and by 2000 it raised to 65 years. The major reason was due to the health explosion. According to the United Nations Population Division and the U. S. Census, the births rate per woman has decreased from 5 to 2. 5 per cent.
Income group: In most of the developed countries there is sub-replacement fertility. They have around one fifth’ of the world’s population. There are countries like China which has a one-child policy are adapted it has its own disadvantages. The income group may gradually decrease. According to the U. S. Census Bureau projections, the working-age by 2030 will be around 900 million people. In the recent trend, the working-age group is more in India and China. It is estimated that over the next two decades that Pakistan, Bangladesh, sub-Saharan Africa would contribute to half the working-age population.
Education qualification: If we look at the figure of the age group of 25 -29 who have the qualification and better knowledge it is going to be increased only by 4% and 70% is going to be the middle age group. This shows that in the developed economies due to their procedures of reducing the population, are going to face major shrinkage in the working group.
Older group: This, in turn, leads to an increase in the older segment group to prevail. They may be employed but the work efficiency is going to be less when compared to young people. China has no national pension system and the old age group is going to drastically increase. The ratio of marriages also is questionable as it is 1 per child the boys and the girl’s ratio is going to clash. The prospective global workforce would be more educated and fit physically and mentally which can increase their efficiency and increase the productivity pattern.
The demographic transition theory is practised by the U. S. and this is clearly seen with the initiative that has been taken from the above points discussed briefly.
The future of the United States is heading towards continuous increase in population though there is fertility decline with less impact upon immigrants. The health factors have to be up to the mark asset for the standards of the lifestyle and create the need for the infrastructure.
When we check the statistics projected by the U. S. Census Bureau, we have the following estimation and they say,
Table Source: www. bbc. co. uk
“ United States of America is 3rd highest populated country with having a population of 313, 232, 044 people and expected to reach up to 439, 010, 253 people in 2050. This is a country where people are living and enjoying the standard life. With increasing in population the people are happy from the Government what they are doing for them.”(Gettoptens. com, 2012)